Geoffrey Miller

International analyst Geoffrey Miller explains why Benjamin Netanyahu’s ousting from power and the formation of a new coalition government in Jerusalem may be a chance for New Zealand to make a fresh start in its relationship with Israel This month’s formation of a new coalition government in Israel may be a chance for New Zealand to reset – or at least reassess – its rocky relationship with the country. The new Israeli government, in which the right-wing nationalist Naftali Bennett will initially serve as Prime Minister, is a complicated one. The coalition deal involves eight parties that span the political...

New Zealanders’ hostility towards China is growing rapidly – but the worst may be still ahead. International analyst Geoffrey Miller examines the latest survey results on how this country feels about China. The latest “Perceptions of Asia” survey from the Asia New Zealand Foundation, released today, shows a sharp rise in the number of New Zealanders who view China as a threat. 35% of New Zealanders surveyed in the study saw China as a major threat or threat – up from 22% the previous year. But the survey was conducted in late October and early November 2020 – which means...

Below is an Arabic translation of my article ‘New Zealand’s relationship with Saudi Arabia faces increasing scrutiny’, originally published in English for the Democracy Project on 11 June 2021. The translation was produced and kindly offered for republication here by Sydney-based freelance journalist Yousef Abou Ammar (on Twitter: @YousefAAmmar): علاقات نيوزيلندا بالمملكة العربية السعودية تواجه تمحيصًا متزايدًا  بينما تحظى العلاقات النيوزيلندية الإشكالية والمربحة مع الصين بالكثير من الاهتمام، إلا أن هناك علاقة أخرى مهمة ومماثلة مع المملكة العربية السعودية لا تحظى باهتمام كبير. يشرح المحلل الدولي جيفري ميلرGeoffrey Miller سبب أهمية الرياض لدرجة يصعب على ويلينغتون تجاهلها. أعلنت وزيرة الخارجية...

While New Zealand’s problematic but lucrative relationship with China gets lots of attention, there’s another important and similar relationship with Saudi Arabia that receives less interest. International analyst Geoffrey Miller explains why Riyadh is too important for Wellington to ignore. New Zealand’s new ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Barney Riley, has his work cut out for him. Foreign affairs minister Nanaia Mahuta last week announced Riley as her choice for the new Head of Mission in Riyadh. Riley is an experienced diplomat and is no stranger to the Middle East. He has previously served as New Zealand’s Ambassador to Egypt and...

New Zealand’s evolving foreign policy – especially with China – is put under the microscope by international analyst Geoffrey Miller, who says it’s important to consider the wider trends and not just the latest twist in the story. This week’s meeting between Jacinda Ardern and Scott Morrison in Queenstown was yet another opportunity to judge the state of New Zealand’s relationship with China. It added to 2021’s ever-growing list. The year began with January’s Freudian slip by Damien O’Connor, who said that Australia needed to “follow us and show respect” to China. In March, New Zealand foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta...

New Zealand’s foreign minister is ruffling feathers. International analyst Geoffrey Miller explores Nanaia Mahuta’s orientation to her job, Beijing, and Belarus. Nanaia Mahuta’s comments on China in a Guardian interview this week brought a veiled rebuke from Beijing – and a new wave of international headlines. It was a fresh reminder that the foreign minister’s words are being closely watched – and not just by China itself. Mahuta is undoubtedly ruffling feathers. But if what appears to be her underlying strategy succeeds – moving Wellington back towards Beijing, while doing just enough to keep traditional Western allies on board –...

This week’s Budget has more than just financial accounts. International analyst Geoffrey Miller delves into what the allocations say about the direction of foreign policy under the new ministers. There are some new clues to be found in the Budget that illustrate the foreign affairs and trade agenda of the Labour Government, under new ministers Nanaia Mahuta and Damien O’Connor. The headline item and only new spending for Vote Foreign Affairs was a $344m appropriation to redevelop Scott Base in Antarctica. Of course, this is significant new money – and a substantial boost on previous plans to spend only $200m....

So far, the New Zealand Government has been remarkably silent about the Gaza-Israel conflict. Geoffrey Miller argues that Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta could be helping meditate for peace. The growing Gaza crisis is testing Nanaia Mahuta’s recent assertion that New Zealand has an independent foreign policy. The conflict between Israel and Hamas-controlled Gaza could be a golden opportunity for Mahuta to take the lead and forge her own path on the world stage. New Zealand could be following Norway’s example and helping to broker a ceasefire and mediate wider peace attempts in the region. But if anything, New Zealand’s response...

Below is an Arabic summary/translation of my article ‘Nanaia Mahuta’s foreign policy reset: the first six months’ , originally published in English for the Democracy Project on 29 April 2021. The summary/translation was produced and kindly offered for republication here by Mohammed Dagamseh of the Embassy of the State of Kuwait, Wellington: تقرير تحليلي للأشهر الستة الأولى لوزيرة الخارجية النيوزيلاندية الجديدة نانايا ماهوتا وسياستها الخارجية في مقال للكاتب والمحلل السياسي Geoffrey Miller منشور له في جامعة فيكتوريا في ويلينغتون في مشروع معهد الديمقراطية/ Democracy Project 29 أبريل 2021 أشار فيه إلى ذكرى ستة شهور لتعيين نانايا ماهوتا وزيرا للخارجية النيوزيلاندية....

Jacinda Ardern’s speech at the China Business Summit was a crowd-pleaser. Geoffrey Miller explains its role in the “rebalancing” of New Zealand’s orientation to China and the West. For critics who believed she had gone soft on China, Jacinda Ardern’s line that differences between China and New Zealand were becoming “harder to reconcile” will be interpreted as tough talk. They will see the speech as backtracking and stepping back from what they considered an appeasement-like stance from Ardern’s foreign minister, Nanaia Mahuta. For its part, China will be likely to understand Ardern’s speech as a necessary component of a wider...