Dr. Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand is once again feeling the fallout of a geopolitical crisis. With a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place, oil prices soared past the $US90 per barrel mark after New Zealand’s close of business on Friday. Little sustained relief is in sight, particularly after Iran’s retaliatory strikes on the Gulf states continued over the weekend, even after a pledge by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to limit attacks against neighbouring countries. The oil price spike and expected associated inflation will be a particular challenge for New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who had been keen to...

This week’s high-profile visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to Washington DC is another reminder of the enduring centrality of the Gulf. The trip by MBS reciprocates US President Donald Trump’s own travel in May to Saudi Arabia, the first scheduled foreign trip of his second term. The tour echoed Trump’s inaugural call on Riyadh during his first term in 2017. But this time around, Trump also visited Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), two smaller, yet increasingly powerful Gulf states. Still, this week’s visit by MBS to Washington is particularly noteworthy because it is the...

Christopher Luxon is heading to Asia for a diplomatic double-header. New Zealand’s Prime Minister is attending both the East Asia Summit (EAS) gathering in Malaysia and the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ meeting in South Korea. This year, the events are being held just days apart, making participation in both meetings especially convenient. For Luxon, the twin summits will provide ample opportunity to meet, greet and hold more substantive talks with counterparts from around Asia and beyond. The EAS meeting in Kuala Lumpur is first on the agenda, starting on Sunday. Designed to dovetail with existing annual gatherings of...

It could have been worse – but it could have been better. That was the message from New Zealand’s trade and finance ministers in their initial response to Donald Trump’s new, higher ‘reciprocal tariff’. New Zealand exporters of most goods to the United States now face a 15 per cent import duty, a significant increase on the 10 per cent ‘baseline’ figure in place since April. A stony-faced Nicola Willis, the finance minister, called Trump’s move a ‘disappointing development’, arguing that New Zealand had suffered from the application of a ‘very blunt formula which does not take account of the...

Israel’s strikes against Iran will form the backdrop to New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s upcoming trip to China. Speaking in the immediate aftermath of the strikes at a scheduled press conference on Friday, Luxon characterised the strikes by Israel as ‘potentially catastrophic for the Middle East’, observing ‘the last thing this region needs is more instability’. Adding to Luxon’s woes, oil prices initially surged by some 10 per cent after the Israeli strikes on Friday, signalling upcoming pain at the petrol pump for New Zealand consumers. Luxon has built his first-term government on easing cost-of-living pressures, but further escalation...

For the first time in a decade, a New Zealand Prime Minister is heading to the Middle East. The trip is more than just a courtesy call. New Zealand PMs frequently change planes in Dubai en route to destinations elsewhere. But Christopher Luxon’s visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) this week will be the first time since 2015 that a New Zealand Prime Minister has embarked on a visit to the Middle East itself. Much has changed in the region since John Key, also from Luxon’s centre-right National Party, visited the Gulf in April 2015. This includes some of...

Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory has set the stage for this year’s APEC summit in Peru. At least 14 leaders have so far confirmed their attendance at the leaders’ summit in Lima from November 15-16. China’s Xi Jinping, Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Canada’s Justin Trudeau will all be in Peru – as will New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. Peru is a particularly enthusiastic Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum member and is hosting events for the third time since it joined in 1998. The 2024 meeting shares one important parallel with previous APEC gatherings held in Peru...

New Zealand’s new free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council is a major win for both sides. Todd McClay, New Zealand’s trade minister, announced the long-awaited deal on Thursday with his counterparts in Doha, Qatar. It is a remarkable, yet also surprising sudden success: the genesis of the agreement lies in talks that began in 2006. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is made up of six countries that are among the world’s richest – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). For New Zealand, the Gulf states are both highly lucrative markets in themselves,...

Change is coming to America. Next month’s elections are likely to pave the way for an overhaul of US foreign policy– regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency. Decisions made in Washington will also have a direct impact on Wellington. While the Biden administration started its term with a strong, even dominant focus on the Indo-Pacific, Washington has inevitably become preoccupied by turmoil elsewhere – most recently in the Middle East, where a wider regional war centred on Iran and Israel is arguably already underway. One year on from the October 7 attacks by Hamas, there...