Geoffrey Miller

New Zealand geopolitical analyst & Arabic/Russian learner

Category: Politics

Bundestag

Politics

Five reasons why the German election matters for New Zealand

This post was originally published at Liberation. In this post I provide some comparative insights into the lessons of the recent German election for New Zealand politics. The lessons are the following: 1. The electoral system is the same, 2. The German election shows the danger of a 5% threshold, 3. Angela Merkel is John Key, 4. A coalition is possible that does not include the biggest party, 5. Credibility matters. 1. The electoral system is the same Germany was the model for the mixed member proportional (MMP) voting system that New Zealand adopted in 1996. While it will always be easier culturally and...

Parliament buildings, Wellington.

Politics

New Zealand politicians on social media (including Wayne Mapp at The Standard)

This post was originally published at Liberation. MPs past and present in the blogosphere A number of past and present MPs are engaging in social media – blogs, and Twitter in particular. In this blog post,I outline what politicians are communicating online and where. I evaluate their efforts, and report on the latest rightwing ex-politician to enter the comments section of a leftwing blog. #106540172 / gettyimages.com This post was inspired by an innocuous-looking reader comment by “Wayne” at leftwing blog The Standard on the blogpost, Cunliffe declares war on National and the TPPA. Here are the comments: Wayne 8.1.1.3 17 September 2013...

Rodney Hide Epsom billboard

Politics

Can Labour learn from Act’s leadership primary? (part 2)

#56052984 / gettyimages.com This post was originally published at Liberation. In the last post, I looked at the background to the Act Party’s 2004 leadership primary, which saw Rodney Hide win election over three other contenders. In this post, I consider some new information passed from a former Act insider, who wishes to remain anonymous. The comments are a cautionary tale as to what can go wrong with a primary contest. Based on this information and analysis, I ask whether Labour will end up going the same way that Act did following its destructive primary. An Act Party insider writes: I’m bemused by...

Act billboard 2005

Politics

Can Labour learn from Act’s leadership primary? (part 1)

#55789878 / gettyimages.com This post was originally published at Liberation. The current New Zealand Labour Party leadership primary contest presents a more democratic way to elect a party leader. Traditionally, the party leader has been seen as a matter for the parliamentary wing, with the much less visible role of party president being elected by the party as a whole. In this blog post – the first of two posts on the subject – I argue that the new primary system, while far from perfect, can only be seen as a long-overdue reform which should strengthen the Labour Party as...

Politics

Liberation guest posts

Since 2010, I have written occasional guest posts on Liberation, the blog of Dr. Bryce Edwards. The links to these are below. Liberation guest posts (in reverse chronological order):24 May 2012: Is taking gifts from lobbyists ever a good idea? (On David Shearer/Labour Party) 3 May 2012: Has John Banks breached the Act Party constitution and rules? 30 April 2012: The consequences of the John Banks donation scandal 29 April 2011: Winners and losers in the Act Party leadership coup 28 April 2011: National, Act, Brash and Orewa 27 April 2011: Don Brash’s move from National to Act 25 April 2011: Don Brash – a new hope...

David Shearer and David Cunliffe

Politics

Memo to David Shearer: is taking gifts from lobbyists ever a good idea?

#145209321 / gettyimages.com This post was originally published at Liberation. David Shearer has defended taking free hospitality from SkyCity at the Rugby World Cup by saying he didn’t know at the time about the ‘convention centre for pokie machines deal’. If this is really true, then Shearer is, at the very least, guilty of incompetence, as the deal was announced in June 2011 and he is an Auckland MP. The deal was covered by the media at the time in June 2011. The alternative is somewhat worse for Shearer, namely that he was in fact fully aware of the news of the deal in June 2011,...

Politics

Has John Banks breached the Act Party constitution and rules?

This blog post was originally published at Liberation Currently the Act Party is attempting to distance itself from the ‘banks.com’ scandal engulfing its leader. For example after the Dotcom donation allegations became known, Act Party president Chris Simmons told the New Zealand Herald ‘There’s a bit of a beat-up going on. It was all to do with the mayoral campaign. It doesn’t have anything to do with Act’. But in practical terms, it has become fairly clear that anything to do with John Banks has in fact a great deal to do with Act, given that he is now their...

Politics

The consequences of the John Banks donation scandal

This blog post was originally published at Liberation Is it all a damp squib? Or will the Kim Dotcom allegations about John Banks lead to messy by-elections, the death of the Act Party, a boost for the Conservative Party, and other party mergers? The guest blog post below from Act-watcher Geoffrey Miller, delves into the various ramifications, and outlines five possible consequences of the scandal. Five possible consequences of the John Banks donation allegations: 1. Nothing – or nothing much Sometimes things that seem like enormous scandals turn into damp squibs. In September 2006, a former policeman and then private...

Politics

Winners and losers in the Act Party leadership coup

This blog post was originally published at Liberation The New Zealand political landscape changed in some major ways with the extraordinary coup by Don Brash for the leadership of the Act Party. Who wins from this unusual changing of the guard? Long-time Act-watcher, Geoffrey Miller, argues in this guest blog post that the ‘winners’ to come out of the coup are Don Brash, John Key, John Banks, Aaron Bhatnagar, Phil Goff, Hilary Calvert, and the Coastal Coalition. And the ‘losers’ are Rodney Hide, John Key, John Boscawen, Brian Nicolle, and Reform New Zealand. Blogger Whaleoil has already come up with...

Politics

National, Act, Brash and Orewa

This blog post was originally published at Liberation On 27 January 2004, Don Brash, then leader of the National Party for just a few months, gave a speech to the Orewa Rotary Club on what he called ‘the dangerous drift towards racial separatism’ in New Zealand. In his speech, Brash advocated the abolition of the Maori seats, an accelerated Treaty of Waitangi settlements process and the removal of ‘divisive race-based features from legislation’. The word Orewa is of course still strongly associated with Brash today. In his interview with John Campbell on Wednesday (27 April 2011), Brash was asked whether...

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