Category: Politics

International analyst Geoffrey Miller examines New Zealand’s positioning amidst tensions between Russia, Ukraine and the West New Zealand’s initial response to a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia is becoming clearer. Russia has positioned around 100,000 troops stationed close to Ukraine’s borders and the US says that Russia now has the capability to invade if it chooses to do so. Russia denies it has any such plans. New Zealand’s foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta issued a written statement to media last week that said “we call on Russia to act in a manner consistent with international law and to take immediate...

Ambiguity and contradiction over China have been hallmarks of New Zealand’s foreign policy throughout 2021. In this respect, the Government’s hawkish new defence assessment, coupled with conflicting comments by ministers about New Zealand’s view on a diplomatic boycott of the upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing, was a fitting end to the year. The assessment, released on Wednesday, bluntly called out China as “seeking to reshape the international system”. In tone and in substance, the document comfortably put New Zealand on the same page as the Australia and the US. But comments made the same day by deputy Prime Minister Grant...

International analyst Geoffrey Miller examines Nanaia Mahuta’s first travel abroad as foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta’s first foreign trip is finally underway. New Zealand’s foreign minister began a seven-country tour of Australia, Singapore, Indonesia, the UAE, Qatar, the US and Canada on Thursday. Mahuta was appointed foreign minister a year ago this month. New Zealand’s specific elimination approach to Covid-19, with isolation requirements for returning travellers, explains some of the delay – especially in the period before vaccines became widely available. Still, Damien O’Connor, the trade minister, managed to make his first foreign trip five months ago – to Europe in...

International analyst Geoffrey Miller looks ahead to the opportunities and challenges for New Zealand’s hosting of APEC Leaders’ Week New Zealand’s hosting of APEC Leaders’ Week is about to begin. Were it not for Covid-19, the week would be a once-in-a-generation, high-profile opportunity for New Zealand to showcase itself to 20 visiting leaders from around the Pacific Rim. APEC’s 21 member economies account for 38% of the world’s population and over 60% of its GDP. China, Japan, Russia and the United States are among the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum’s political and economic heavyweights. New Zealand’s last hosting of APEC, in...

International analyst Geoffrey Miller explains why the free trade agreement between New Zealand and the United Kingdom is not just about building back butter The new Aukus defence pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States will go down as one of this year’s biggest foreign policy surprises. By contrast, only the exact timing of the announcement of a free trade agreement (FTA) between New Zealand and the United Kingdom was uncertain. The UK signed a particularly generous agreement with Australia in June, and New Zealand’s diplomats were clearly expecting to secure a very similar deal. Given that...

International analyst Geoffrey Miller considers New Zealand’s participation in Expo 2020 Dubai and asks whether it can help to deepen the country’s ties with the Middle East Expo 2020 is a chance to reconsider New Zealand’s relationship with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Gulf. The six-month mega-event on Dubai’s outskirts – the first world fair to be held in the Middle East or Africa – officially opens to visitors today, after being delayed for a year due to the pandemic. It will remain open for 182 days, closing at the end of March 2022. New Zealand has allocated...

International analyst Geoffrey Miller considers the implications for New Zealand of the new Aukus partnership China’s level of anger at the new Aukus defence pact between Australia, the UK and the US was only to be expected. France’s was not. And Paris’s dramatic recall of its ambassadors to Canberra and Washington at the weekend may be just the start of the impact. Even in New Zealand, policymakers will be feeling more than a little miffed – despite Jacinda Ardern stressing that everything was fine. When quizzed about Aukus, Ardern said “we weren’t approached but nor would I expect us to...

International analyst Geoffrey Miller reflects on the impact that the September 11 attacks had on New Zealand’s foreign policy This week’s anniversary of the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 is also an opportunity to recall the impact the tragedy – and the response to it – had on New Zealand’s wider foreign policy. New Zealand immediately supported the US invasion of Afghanistan in pursuit of Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda, with an initial deployment of Special Air Service (SAS) combat soldiers. A Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Bamyan province followed in 2003. Amidst the recent...

International analyst Geoffrey Miller says New Zealand’s latest Covid-19 outbreak has once again delayed the country’s return to top-level face-to-face diplomacy – but this comes at a cost New Zealand’s new outbreak of Covid-19 has also stalled an attempt to restart the country’s top-level diplomatic engagement. Given the Delta variant’s spread in Auckland, a rumoured trip to the UN General Assembly in New York later this month by Jacinda Ardern is now all but off the table. It is the second time this year that the coronavirus has got in the way of the Prime Minister resuming international travel. A...

This week’s hard-hitting report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was a reminder of the influential and inspirational role the United Nations can play. The UN’s Secretary General, António Guterres, called the new assessment – which predicts average global temperatures will be 1.5 degrees warmer by 2040 than they were in the pre-industrial era – “code red for humanity”. The IPCC was founded in 1988 by two UN agencies – the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its role is to distil and package the scientific evidence for climate change, based on work...