Roy Morgan poll
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ACT supporters were no doubt buoyed by the Roy Morgan poll out on Friday which put ACT on a 3.5% share of the party vote. For a reality check, I looked at my own commentary from back in August 2008:
A little hope…came in the latest Roy Morgan poll, out on Friday. ACT – which these days normally doesn’t even make it into polling commentary, leaving one to hunt for the light blue line just above the 0% mark in the accompanying graphic – has perhaps gained a little of what Duncan Garner et al. would call “traction”. The party is now up to 2.5%.
Well, looking at the Roy Morgan site it seems that this hope subsequently faded back to 1.5% – Roy Morgan’s result for ACT in the following three polls. Moreover, the TVNZ and TV3 polls out over the weekend both put ACT on less than 2% (1.6% and 1.8% respectively).
Troubling for ACT is also that National is descending faster than the smaller party can rise. The TV3 and Roy Morgan polls put National on 45% and 40% respectively. By those measures, ACT’s 3.5% isn’t going to put National over the line.